Pitt Preview - Where's Me Pot O' Gold?
I consider this weekend's matchup versus 8th ranked Pittsburgh the greatest test the Fighting Irish have faced all season. Pittsburgh is a well-rounded team lead by an efficient quarterback, a stud running back and a solid defense. That said, the strength of ND's opponent is just half the battle. Since Notre Dame's BCS hopes were sunk by Navy last week the Irish have been pelted by a firestorm of criticism and speculation. The coach seems to have lost the confidence of fans, the players seem to be doubting their leadership, and the team now has to regroup and muster some confidence before stepping on Heinz Field Saturday night.
This game features two of the most efficient quarterbacks in college football in Jimmy Clausen and Bill Stull, who rank 3rd and 5th in QB rating respectively. They have thrown just 7 interceptions between them. That said, Jimmy Clausen has put up about 900 more yards than Stull on the season, largely due to the talent that ND possesses at WR. That is ND's edge. Pittsburgh's offensive edge comes on the ground, as the Panthers boast a potent rushing attack that they aren't afraid to use, unlike ND. Freshman RB Dion Lewis has stacked up over 1,139 yards on the season with 5.6 yards per carry and 12 touchdowns.
The Fighting Irish defense entered the Navy game on a bit of a roll in the run-stopping category. Having held Boston College (the 8th raked rushing team at the time) to just 70 yards on the ground, the defense was feeling confident in their ability to contain rushing teams. That confidence faded fast as Navy racked up 348 rushing yards against ND, who looked about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. The Fighting Irish defense is now tasked with rebounding from last week's embarrassment by stopping Dion Lewis, the 7th leading rusher nationally.
Notre Dame was finally bit by the turnover bug last week. The Irish offense will need to return to it's careful ways if they expect to win this weekend. They cannot afford to cough the ball up multiple times against Pittsburgh, who averages 34.6 points per game. On the same note, ND must figure out a way to get the ball over the goal line againts this stout Pittsburgh defense.
Where's me pot o' gold? (keys to the game)
- Stop the Run: The Irish defense must slow the dangerous freshman Dion Lewis.
- Protect your Jimmy: the offensive line must keep the pressure off of Jimmy Clausen. Pittsburgh leads the nation in sacks at 4.33 per game and 39 on the season. This smells like trouble.
- Attack the Pittsburgh secondary: Pittsburgh had some difficulty stopping the pass earlier in the year. They gave up 433 passing yards to Buffalo and 322 to NC State in their only loss. Both of those teams pale in comparison to the Irish passing attack.
- Run the ball: Charlie Weis must rely on his run game more. Armando Allen returns to the lineup this weekend. This may not be ND's strength, but they have to keep the Pitt D honest.
- Think with your dipstick: It would be nice to see the ND secondary lose the confusion before each play. They have looked lost all year. It might help to know who you should cover before Bill Stull gets the snap.
What do I think will happen Saturday?
If there is one thing that we know about ND, its that they don't give up. This week offers the biggest test against their resiliency. I believe we will see more of the "fight" that Charlie Weis is so proud of. I believe this team has enough experienced leadership in place to bounce back and put up a fight this weekend. The "experts" have Pitt favored by 7 this weekend. I am going to defy their knowledge and pick ND. The Irish rebound with a win in Pittsburgh, 31-28.
No matter how dire the circumstances, I will support my Fighting Irish. I have faith in that team.
Go Irish! Beat Panthers!
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2 comments:
Good analysis of the Pitt game. I think Charlie's future with N.D. will all be decided by the next three games, plus the bowl. If they win all three (and they could), he's back. I don't think any N.D. administration is going to fire a coach who just went 9-3. If they lose one, he's probably back. If they lose two, probably not. And if they lose all three, we all know the answer to that one.
Thanks Mark.
I'm not convinced that they will keep Charlie if he loses another game. I think the heat is too high already. I think he will nee dto win all remaining games, the bowl game and fire his Defensive Coordinator. He needs to prove that he is willing and capable of adjusting, contrary to his press conference comment of "never changing".
Either way, I'm really looking forward to Saturday night.
Go Irish!
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